Markets and a Biden Presidency
The looming election is likely to be an important driver of market volatility in the near-term, but Aon thinks that broader economic factors will dominate over the medium-term.
The polls point to a victory for Joe Biden and the Democrats in November, and even a possible “blue wave” although the betting odds have narrowed following the conventions. This scenario cannot be taken as a given due to uncertainty surrounding polling, a high proportion of postal voting, and pandemic developments. The evidence does not support the assumption that Democratic administrations are bad for equity returns, especially if we look at performance over whole terms. Nonetheless, Joe Biden’s tax proposals are likely to reduce corporate earnings for 2021. Taxes are likely to rise regardless of the election outcome, though, due to exploding deficits created by the pandemic. The looming election is likely to be an important driver of market volatility in the near-term, but we think that broader economic factors will dominate over the medium-term. It will pay to look through the election impact.